BDO Horizons 2026 — Issue 1

BDO Horizons 2026 — Issue 1

BDO’s global view of mid-market deal activity


Welcome to the first edition of Horizons in 2026, written by our own BDO M&A professionals around the world.
Global map of forecasted mid‑market M&A activity according to BDO Horizons 2026. Map colouring illustrates the movement of expected transactions compared to the predicted transactions from H2 2025. Map colouring illustrates the movement of expected transactions compared to the predicted transactions from H2 2025.

We  start the year looking back at 2025 to help us draw the perspectives for the year ahead. The overall data shows that activity in the mid-market has suffered a drop in volume among a turmoil of geopolitical tension, which has not helped executives plan for the long term.

The number of rumoured transactions for the months ahead hovers close to 6,000, which is similar to the previous 2 years and we expect North America to continue being the hotspot of activity.

With geopolitical tensions and tariffs still being the key themes of our current environment, we approach 2026 with caution, but with hope, due to the high levels of available cash to invest and the inherent resilience of the mid-market.

ГA chart illustrating the dynamics of global mid‑market M&A deals from H1 2020 to H2 2025. The bar charts show deal volume by category — Trade Volume and Private Equity Volume — while the lines represent overall deal value (Total Value, USD M) and private equity deal value (PE Value, USD M). A peak in total deal value is observed in 2022, followed by a gradual decline through 2025, while deal volume remains relatively stable.

In a global market of bewildering activity and endless choices, we provide some of the context necessary to navigate it.

Download the report for the full analysis.

 
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Source: BDO Global
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Key Findings:

  • Global mid‑market M&A activity declined in 2025, primarily due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty, which constrained strategic planning and investment activity.
  • The scope of rumoured transactions remains stable: at around 6,000 transactions, indicating sustained investor interest despite macroeconomic challenges and shifting market conditions.
  • North America remains the most active M&A region, demonstrating relative resilience and strong market liquidity compared with other parts of the world.
  • Despite geopolitical tensions and tariff barriers, the high liquidity and resilience of the mid‑market segment allow the market to approach 2026 with caution, but with hope, as these factors form a basis for positive expectations.


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Key Contact

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Vitaliy Strukov

Corporate Finance Managing Partner
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