Annex B. Country Context and Key Markets

B2. Key markets: sector snapshots

Annex B. Country Context and Key Markets

B2. Key markets: sector snapshots


Economy

Key economy highlights

  • Growth despite the war: Despite a sharp decline in 2022 (-19%), the economy is showing steady recovery. GDP for 2025, at $209.7 bln, exceeds the pre-war level in monetary terms, confirming the adaptability of business. (It is expected to reach USD 290 bln GDP by 2030).
  • A lower starting point as an advantage: The economy remains relatively small ($6,400 GDP per capita compared to $28,500 in Poland). In the context of European integration, this means enormous potential for “catch-up” growth through investment attraction and increased labor productivity.
  • Transformation of GDP structure: The economy has changed radically – the share of the Gov/Defense sector has grown from 7% to 24%. This is a temporary “military model” that will transform into civilian technologies and exportable MilTech in the future.



Key economy highlights


GDP per capita by country in 2025, USD ths

  • Demographic gap: A 20% decline in population (to 32.9 mln in 2025) is due to 1) migration caused by security risks and 2) further partial occupation of territories. The expected stabilization at 34 mln by 2030 is a factor for the recovery of the consumer and labor force market.
  • Export of services: The service sector (particularly IT and digital services) has become much stronger than before the war, providing a stable inflow of currency despite the closure of physical borders for goods.
  • Nature of the trade deficit: The deep gap in trade is due to massive government procurement for defense purposes. Importantly, the “civilian” deficit is not as critical as it was before the war, as the structure of imports has been reoriented toward critical defense needs.
  • Investment attractiveness: The M&A market, worth $4.3 bln (2022-2025), indicates that capital is already entering the country without waiting for the end of hostilities, especially in the agricultural and energy sectors.


Foreign trade

  • Military deficit: The trade gap reached $45 bln due to a decline in exports and a surge in imports to $85 bln.
  • The Machinery item quadrupled (to $34 bln) due to large-scale purchases of military equipment.
  • Exports of services grew to $16 bln, with IT ($7 bln) becoming a key source of foreign currency.
  • The largest import of services was travel ($13 bln), reflecting payments made by Ukrainians abroad rather than tourism.
  • Food dominates exports of goods (USD 23 bln), replacing metallurgy as the basis of income.

Foreign trade

Foreign trade

Agriculture

Market size (2025): USD 18.8 bln

Market overview

The agricultural sector is one of the most important pillars of Ukraine’s economy and remains highly attractive for investment, contributing 8.8% of GDP and 56% of national exports in 2025. It benefits from some of the world’s most fertile black soils and favorable climate conditions, supported by skilled professionals and a broad mix of crop and livestock production.


Investment potential

Ukraine’s key agricultural opportunity lies in expanding value‑added processing, as limited capacity still channels much of output into raw‑commodity exports (in 2025,  in raw materials vs. processed goods – 53.4% vs. 46.6%). The sector is prioritized under the Law on State Support for Investment Projects, offering up to 30% CAPEX compensation. Only ~26% of agricultural products are processed today, though available capacity could raise this to about 68%. In 2025, agricultural M&A reached USD 371 million across nine major deals, highlighting consolidation of land banks and growing vertical integration, with domestic investors still dominating despite wartime pressures

Land resources

Despite temporary occupation of some areas, Ukraine retains 26 million ha of arable and fallow land in 2024, about 70% of which is black soil. Ukraine had long history of prohibited sale of agriculture land due to a 2001 moratorium driven by lack of proper regulation. However, since 2021 individuals were allowed to buy up to 100 ha (Land reform launch), and from 2024 Ukrainian legal entities can purchase up to 10 000 ha. Farmland remains highly fragmented: most is owned by millions of small holders, while large companies largely operate through leases. Foreign investors cannot own farmland but may invest through long‑term leases or Ukrainian LLCs. The top 10 businesses control about one‑third of land owned by legal entities, still only a small share of total farmland.


Top 5 holding companies in Ukraine by agricultural land owned (2025), ths ha

  1. Kernel – 363 (0.87%)
  2. MHP – 360 (0.87%)
  3. UkrLandFarming – 330 (0.8%)
  4. Agroprosperis – 290 (0.7%)
  5. Astarta-Kyiv – 212 (0.51%)


Investment potential

Mining

Market size (2025): USD 10.2 bln

Market overview

Ukraine holds deposits of 22 out of 34 minerals considered critical for the European Union. Before the war, the mining sector contributed over 6% of Ukraine’s GDP. Despite significant disruption caused by the occupation of mineral‑rich regions and key infrastructure, the country retains substantial proven reserves, a strong industrial base and a robust pipeline of more than 100 ongoing development projects.

M&A activity

Ukraine’s mining sector is seeing renewed M&A activity, especially around lithium, titanium, and rare‑earth assets. A major milestone was the privatization of the state‑owned United Mining and Chemical Company (UMCC)–Ukraine’s largest titanium producer–which was sold in 2024 for USD 6 mln


Raw material base

  • Non‑ferrous metals: 5 licensed extraction sites; 3086 ha licensed.
  • Rare‑earth metals: 4 licensed extraction sites; 1870 ha licensed.
  • Lithium: 3 explored deposits + 1 studied site; investment needs USD 150–250 mln per project.
  • Titanium: 28 known placer/rock deposits; 6 active mines; 4 deposits available for privatization.
  • Graphite: 6 known deposits; Ukraine among world’s top 5 by explored reserves (around 19 Mt).
  • Nickel & cobalt: 12 silicate‑nickel deposits; cobalt reserves around 9000 tons; two priority development sites.
  • Gold‑lead‑zinc: 7 recorded deposits; one active mine (Muzhivske).


In 2025, Ukraine and the United States established the U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund to support investment in critical minerals, hydrocarbons and related infrastructure. The Fund was initially capitalised with USD 150m, including a USD 75m commitment from the U.S. DFC matched by Ukraine, creating a dedicated platform to catalyse additional private investment.

Investment potential

Investment activity in the mining sector might be challenging due to insufficient deposit exploration and lack of reliable geological data, with martial law limiting its public availability even more. But an ongoing digitalization initiative aims to consolidate Ukraine’ geological archives.

Ukraine grants mining rights through state‑issued licenses, mainly awarded via mandatory electronic auctions, with Production Sharing Agreements available for strategic deposits. Exploration license holders receive a preferential right to obtain production licenses, and rights remain transferable except to sanctioned or high‑risk entities. Investors must secure land access separately and pay royalties and standard taxes. Foreign ownership is permitted, and most investors operate through Ukrainian LLCs, supported by financing from private, multilateral, and project‑finance sources.

Minerals production in Ukraine in 2024, ths tonnes


Ukraine’s mineral resource reserves, bln tonnes

Investment potential

Value of mineral resource reserves by regions

IT

Market size (2025): USD 7.8 bln

Market overview

IT industry remains one of Ukraine’s five leading export sectors and maintains positive growth even in challenging external circumstances. In 2025 the export of IT services accounted for ~3.1% of the country's GDP.

As of 2025, Ukraine’s key partner countries included the USA, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Germany, Israel and Poland, and also Malta and Cyprus acting as financial and corporate intermediaries 

Key features

  • There is insufficient regulatory alignment with EU digital standards in the market.
  • Domestic instability and ongoing cyber‑threats create additional risks for the sector
  • Strong talent base and sufficient competition for tech talent.

IT companies in Ukraine

Among IT companies in Ukraine 63% are domestic, 10% are foreign and 27% are subsidiaries of foreign. Outsourcing companies prevail in the market, but the product segment is also developing. TOP-5 largest IT companies in Ukraine:IT companies in Ukraine

Defence

Market size (2025): USD 50 bln

Market overview

The defence industry is critical for Ukraine during the full-scale war. In 2025, output of state‑owned enterprises reached USD 4.32 bln, while faster private‑sector growth points to a total production potential of up to USD 50 bln. The government is the main customer in the defence sector. Exports are currently strongly limited by government.

defence industry

Domestic production covers over 50% of the Armed Forces’ needs, although material and technical base remains insufficient and the country continues to rely on imported components and international aid. The sector remains relatively immature yet is rapidly advancing, driven by strong competencies and a solid engineering knowledge base.


International cooperation

Intergovernmental assistance

Ukraine has concluded 29 bilateral security agreements with international partners as of 2026. Top supporters of Ukraine by aid relative to national budgets are Norway, Denmark, Sweeden, Estonia and Finland.

Funding mechanisms:

  • Danish Model delivered around 1.8 bn USD worth of defence production in 2025. 
  • Other EU funding mechanisms, e.g. European Peace Facility (USD 5.4 bln), European Defence Industry Programme (USD 1.6 bln )

Private‑sector industrial partnership

  • Co‑production initiatives: 25 foreign defence companies are localising production in Ukraine (e.g. Rheinmetall, KNDS)
  • Shifting production abroad by domestic manufacturers to avoid military risks and evade government restrictions


International cooperation


Funding mechanisms:

  • Danish Model delivered around 1.8bn USD worth of defence production in 2025. 
  • Other EU funding mechanisms, e.g. European Peace Facility (USD 5.4 bln), European Defence Industry Programme (USD 1.6 bln )


Funding mechanisms:

Other opportunities of industry

  • Strong IT capabilities enabling broader adoption of technologies
  • The government is establishing the Defence.City – legal regime for defence businesses in Ukraine with tax incentives and other favorable conditions
  • Large‑scale cooperation formats
  • Further manufacturing localisation

International cooperation


Construction and housing

Energy


Investment potential

The energy sector remains one of the most war-affected industries, with reconstruction and recovery needs estimated at nearly USD 91 bln over the next decade. HPPs, TPPs, and CHP plants suffered the most, which dramatically reduced flexibility and increased system vulnerability. The system remained operational due to a broad network, diversified energy mix, and a workforce of 252,846 employees.

Ukraine’s transition toward a more decentralized and renewable‑oriented energy system is driving new investment opportunities. The state provides targeted support, including euro‑linked auctions for renewable electricity (USD 1.1 bln in 2025), and through the Law “On State Support of Investment Projects with Significant Investments in Ukraine,” offering incentives for biogas and biomethane projects.

Ukraine’s transition toward a more decentralized and renewable‑oriented energy system is driving new investment opportunities. The state provides targeted support, including euro‑linked auctions for renewable electricity (USD 1.1 bln in 2025), and through the Law “On State Support of Investment Projects with Significant Investments in Ukraine,” offering incentives for biogas and biomethane projects.

Estimated loss in generating capacities of more than 30 GW would be significant restriction for further recovery, while flexible generation capacities are among key challenges. In the next years Ukraine will significantly invest in:

  • Partial reconstruction of TPPs (where it is technically possible)
  • Installation of cogeneration units / gas-turbine units
  • Installation of wind and solar stations as well as large battery energy storage systems
  • Development on end-user market: generators, small generation for households and business, solar panels, hybrid invertors and batteries
  • Improvement of overall energy efficiency to optimize consumption

Major investors remain active. South Korean company Posco International is building a USD 106 mln CHP plant in Odesa that will run on refuse‑derived fuel and produce 12 MW of electricity and 40 MW of heat. DTEK (the largest private investor in Ukraine's energy sector) has invested over EUR 12.5 bln in energy assets over the past 20 years, including EUR 1.64 bln in the development of renewable energy sources (RES). There are M&As as well: FTD Investments’ acquisition of solar power plants Bolokhiv Solar Park 1 and 2 with the total capacity of 33.35 MW.

Investment potential