Crop production and grain cultivation remain key pillars of the agricultural sector of Ukraine. They ensure national food security and form the basis of the country’s export potential.
Despite the challenges and instability it faces, Ukraine continues to be one of the world’s leading exporters of agricultural products. To remain competitive under new conditions, farmers are actively implementing innovative technologies, adapting logistics chains and seeking new sales markets.
The core of Ukraine’s agricultural production consists of wheat and corn. Gross wheat production is estimated to reach around 21 million tonnes in 2025, while corn production is expected to reach 27–28 million tonnes. Other grains include barley, rye, oats and millet. Although these crops are produced in significantly smaller volumes, they remain important for the domestic market and feed base, as well as for export. Together, they ensure the stability of the country’s grain balance and support its export capacity.
Government policy and global factors
Amid instability, Ukraine’s government policy in 2025 is focused on supporting the agricultural sector. Key measures include compensating for logistics costs, subsidising crop insurance and promoting exports via alternative routes. However, the sector is facing several challenges, including unstable tax policies, limited access to financing and bureaucratic barriers.The situation is complicated globally by intense competition, geopolitical tensions and shifting trade flows. Although Ukraine is gradually regaining its position in the global market, it has to compete with Brazil, the USA, Russia and Argentina. Integrating into European logistics chains and expanding into Asian and African markets remain crucial goals.
Prospects and challenges
The outlook for the next decade is promising. Analysts forecast gradual increase in production by 2034 — approximately 23 million tonnes of wheat and over 34 million tonnes of corn. Meanwhile, the focus is shifting: the future of the sector lies not only in raw material exports but also in creating added value through processing.The grain market of Ukraine is at a transitional stage: strong production potential, product quality and geographical advantages provide a solid basis for further expansion. However, to realise this potential and transition to a high-value, stable income sector, five strategic priorities must be addressed:
- Infrastructure modernisation,
- Processing development,
- Agrotechnological transformation,
- Market diversification,
- Implementation of partnership models.
Nevertheless, the challenges remain significant. Logistics is currently the main pressure point for the entire grain industry. While shifting exports from Black Sea ports to Danube routes helped to avoid a collapse, it also significantly increased transportation costs. Price pressure also persists — Ukrainian grain remains 10–15% cheaper than its global counterparts, which improves competitiveness but reduces profitability. At the same time, however, farmers are learning to think strategically: investing in irrigation systems, precision farming and digital solutions for yield monitoring. This creates a new standard of production that focuses not only on volume, but also on efficiency.
Global trends also favour Ukraine. The rising demand for grains in the Middle East and Africa is creating new opportunities for market expansion. Ukraine’s unique combination of fertile soils, advantageous location and experienced producers lays the groundwork for further development. However, investment, cooperation and technological renewal are key to success, as they will help to overcome logistical barriers and improve production profitability.
More detailed information on the industry landscape and its prospects is available in our report.
Summary
Despite facing significant challenges, Ukraine’s agricultural sector continues to be a driving force in the country’s economy, with a substantial proportion of export revenue originating from the grain sector. Ukrainian farmers have demonstrated exceptional resilience by not only maintaining their position in the global market, but also partially rethinking the sector’s development model. The focus is now shifting from quantitative growth to qualitative transformation, with an emphasis on efficiency, technology, sustainability and added value.BDO Ukraine has a specialised agricultural sector group with in-depth knowledge of the market, which regularly conducts analytical research in the agri-food sector. Our analysts closely monitor grain market trends and can provide businesses in the industry with practical recommendations and optimisation solutions.
If you are involved in grain cultivation or export and seek in-depth analytics, market insights, new growth opportunities, or ways to improve business efficiency — please contact our experts.
